When Winning Feels Impossible
A few weeks ago I introduced a simple but powerful framework: People make seemingly irrational choices when they believe they’re playing an unwinnable game. When the probability of success approaches zero through traditional means, people don’t just give up. When p(win)=0 they change the rules, seek alternative games, or embrace strategies that might look nonsensical to outside observers.
(link to original post: The Game Matters)
But there’s a darker side to this phenomenon that deserves deeper examination. When people believe that p(win)=0, it fundamentally alters not just their strategies, but their entire moral framework and relationship with society.
The PvE Mindset: When Everyone Else Becomes NPCs
In the gaming world, there’s a crucial distinction between PvP (Player versus Player) and PvE (Player versus Environment) games. In PvP, players compete directly against other human players, fostering a community where success often requires cooperation, respect for rules, and consideration of others’ experiences. In PvE, players face off against computer-controlled enemies—mere obstacles to be overcome through any means necessary.
When people perceive society as a low p(win) environment, they increasingly adopt a PvE mindset. Other people cease to be fellow players and become NPCs (Non-Player Characters) – background elements in one’s personal quest for success. This shift manifests clearly in modern financial markets, with the pinnacle example being the explosion of memecoins and speculative tokens.
Take the recent surge in the family of Trump tokens. Everyday people are piling into these obviously manipulated tokens fully aware that they’re participating in a rigged game designed to enrich a small inner circle. They just want their piece of the riches even knowing it comes at the expense of other people’s wallets.
The traditional investment ethos of creating value through productive enterprise gives way to a pure zero-sum mentality: “I don’t care if others lose, as long as I win.” This isn’t just greed; it’s a rational response to perceived systemic unfairness. When the conventional path to success feels blocked, any path to victory becomes acceptable, regardless of its impact on others.
The Fortress Mentality: Protecting Your Win at All Costs
Perhaps even more telling is what happens to people who do succeed in a low p(win) environment. Rather than feeling secure in their success, they often develop what we might call a “fortress mentality”—an aggressive defensive posture against any perceived threat to their position.
This explains the fierce opposition to policies that might level the playing field: NIMBY resistance to affordable housing, antagonism toward student loan relief, and pushback against minimum wage increases. When success feels like a rare and precious resource acquired against impossible odds, the natural instinct is to guard it jealously. The ladder-pulling behavior we often criticize in successful individuals isn’t necessarily hypocrisy – it’s a predictable outcome of achieving success in a system you believe is fundamentally stacked against success.
Redefining Victory: The Path Forward
The solution isn’t to moralize about greed or selfishness. If our analysis is correct, these behaviors are symptoms, not causes. The real challenge is to restore people’s belief in the possibility of success through constructive participation in society.
This is where political leadership becomes crucial. Instead of focusing solely on wealth redistribution or regulatory frameworks, we need to rebuild faith in p(win) > 0. This means:
1. Creating clear, achievable definitions of “winning” that don’t require taking on extreme risk
2. Establishing transparent rules and pathways to success that are “fair” and “equitable”
3. Demonstrating that cooperative behavior and societal contribution can lead to personal victory
The good news? We’ve been here before. Throughout history, societies have faced moments when the social contract seemed to be unraveling—when individual success appeared impossible through traditional means. The Progressive Era emerged from the Gilded Age’s excesses. The New Deal reshaped American society’s relationship with economic opportunity. The post-war boom created the largest middle class in history.
These transformations didn’t happen by accident. They were the result of conscious societal choices to rebuild faith in the possibility of success through participation in the system. Today’s challenges—wealth inequality, technological disruption, climate change—may seem unique, but they’re not insurmountable.
The key is understanding that when people stop believing in the possibility of winning through constructive participation in society, they don’t just give up—they change games entirely. Our task isn’t to condemn these choices but to rebuild systems where success feels achievable without requiring either exceptional luck or disregard for collective welfare.
Modern society has proven remarkably adaptable, consistently finding ways to realign individual incentives with collective prosperity. The current disconnect between personal success strategies and societal welfare isn’t a permanent condition—it’s a signal that we need to rebuild confidence in p(win) > 0 through legitimate participation in the system.
The game isn’t over. It’s just time to rewrite the rules.
